Sometimes in football, teams make very big statements that the rest of the elite can’t help but ignore. And in Lisbon last Tuesday, Pep Guardiola’s Man City sent shockwaves across Europe with a 5-0 demolition of Sporting Lisbon. The Portuguese side are no pushovers, and many pundits tipped them to give City a tougher than expected battle in the Last 16 game. Alas, City made a mockery of such hopes by smashing five past Lisbon. As if to rub salt in the wound, Guardiola said the performance was “not perfect”.
As you might expect, putting on such a show meant that City’s odds were cut for the Champions League. The latest online betting prices show City somewhere around 12/5 to win a first-ever Champions League crown in St Petersburg on 28th May. Bayern Munich are close behind, and there are also single-digit odds for Chelsea, Liverpool and PSG.
City deserve to lead the betting markets
City deserve to be favourites. We can say that with confidence. But we should not go running to immediately crown them champions. After all, we have been here before – several times in the last decade. How many times have we said that Guardiola’s City are the best team in Europe, the world perhaps, and yet they have slipped up when it matters in the Champions League. For every stunning performance, there is a ‘blooper’ (vs. Lyon in 2020, Spurs 2019, Monaco 2017), where City have lost against supposedly inferior sides.
Of course, if you follow City and the media circus that surrounds them, you’ll be well aware that the finger is often pointed at Guardiola himself. The Spaniard, while an untouchable hero among the denizens of the Etihad, is charged with overthinking the situation, trying to make fixes to the City line-up when no problem actually exists. Then again, that’s part of Guardiola’s style. He is a perfectionist.
Four or five teams can win it all
As we said, the favourites tag is merited. But from a betting point of view, we can’t help but think that City are much too short in the odds. In fairness, the bookies haven’t gone all-in – 12/5 is still an attractive price – but it arguably overstates City’s hopes in a competition where at least five teams have superb chances of winning. If City were, for example, to come up against Liverpool or Bayern Munich in the quarters, how confident would you be that they will progress? Chelsea showed last year that Thomas Tuchel can outthink Guardiola on occasion, and PSG should certainly not be ruled out.
It is, for all intents and purposes, a five-horse race, but saying that also undervalues the chances of teams like Manchester United, Ajax, Juventus, Atletico, and others. Perhaps they are not strong enough to win a title this year, but they will offer some resistance to City should they clash with them in the quarters and beyond. For the moment, then, enjoy City’s marvellous form, but don’t be too quick to suggest they will be champions. Tougher tests await.
