After what seems like forever, the Champions League will be getting back underway shortly, with the Last 16 ties beginning on Tuesday 15th February. Many fans will welcome the format of the Last 16, which sees the ties spread out over a four-week period, concluding on the 16th of March. Having two matches per evening gives more of a big match feel to each game, drawing a line between the way the action is formatted in the Group Stages.
Below, we wanted to take a look at three of the big ties from the Last 16, discussing the odds, making some predictions, and reporting on everything in-between:
PSG vs. Real Madrid (15th Feb, 9th Mar)
This is interesting, not least due to the controversy of the original draw, which had to be remade. Madrid originally had a tie with Benfica, so they will not be too happy about meeting the formidable PSG after the redo. The consensus might say that PSG are favourites to progress, but we think that the bookies have called this correctly. It’s even money for Madrid to qualify – that’s 2.0 or +100 if you use different formats for betting odds. As for PSG, they are just a shade under evens at 5/6. For us, that seems about right to give PSG the narrowest of advantages.
It might suit PSG to play at home first, though. If they can get a win at Parc des Princes, then Mauricio Pochettino will fancy his side to shut up shop in the Bernabeu on 9th of March. Madrid can sometimes struggle to break down stubborn opponents at home – have a look at the 0-0 draws with Cadiz, Osasuna and Villarreal this season for evidence. It’s going to be tight, but we think PSG will edge it.
Prediction: PSG
Betting Tip: Under 2.5 goals in Second Leg
Inter Milan vs. Liverpool (16th Feb, 8th Mar)
Another clash of the heavyweights, but this one has a clear favourite in Liverpool. The Reds are priced at around 2/9 to progress to the next round, and it’s hard to argue against that even if the odds don’t look too attractive. Inter certainly aren’t mugs, though, and their form in (an admittedly weak) Serie A should give them reason for some optimism. They haven’t tasted defeat in the league since 16th of October, and both Laturo Martinez and an evergreen Edin Dzeko will cause problems for the Liverpool defence.
Still, this smacks of a Liverpool victory, and we would even consider taking the 11/10 odds that the Reds leave Milan with the win in the 1st leg. It’s hard to see Inter coping with Liverpool’s pressing, and there is so much firepower at Jurgen Klopp’s disposal. Barring catastrophe, Liverpool win this with ease.
Prediction: Liverpool
Betting Tip: Liverpool win First Leg
Atletico Madrid vs. Manchester United (23rd Feb, 15th Mar)
This may sound like a bit of an exaggeration, but can you think of a more difficult tie to call in recent Champions League history? Incredibly, United are as short as 13/20 with some bookmakers to make it through to the next round. It makes you wonder whether they have watched disaster after disaster unfold at Old Trafford over the last few months. Yes, Atletico aren’t the force of old, but they are exactly the type of team that can capitalise on United naivety.
Indeed, it’s probably not been remarked upon how bad a transfer window United had, with the departures of Anthony Martial, Donny Van De Beek and, for non-footballing reasons, Mason Greenwood. It leaves them short in backup, and a couple of injuries might really derail their season entirely. For the moment, that’s idle conjecture, but we still think the nous of Diego Simeone’s battlers will see Atleti through.
Prediction: Atletico Madrid
Betting Tip: Atletico Win to Nil in First Leg
